Aaron Poeze

Sarah Palin will not win the 2012 election.

A great deal has been made of Sarah Palin as presidential candidate in 2012 even before the end of the 2008 election.  Many in the conservative world adore Sarah Palin and were naturally disappointed that she didn’t make it into government during that last US federal election. There is no question Sarah was the shot in the arm the McCain campaign needed at the time. Unfortunately for them it was only going to fire up those who were already supportive.

Now, despite her rather transparent claim not to be, she is beginning the very long haul in preparation for the 2012 election. Part of this means gaining visibility which she already has an enormous advantage in compared to other potential candidates. Only recently she had an interview with Oprah Winfrey. On the surface this was about her new book ‘Going Rogue’.

The other thing Palin needs is money. The sad truth is millions wins elections, anyone without the money has no chance at all. Palin will get money, no doubt has some of her own, but I am not certain there will be enough. If she can successfully squeeze her fanbase, perhaps the same way Obama did, I think it’s quite possible.

So really so far it looks like she’s in with a chance. But I don’t think so.

The first problem is credibility and reputation.

The book itself makes me wonder. 413 pages apparently and released so quickly. I find it difficult to believe she wrote it. There’s a rumour it was ghostwritten by Lynn Vincent. Any dirt in her book is likely to be ‘discovered’ at an awkward time for Palin. I think there will be an avalanche of it.

Sarah’s original gaffes still bite but I think she will be able to make it up as long as she really isn’t that out of touch. Time will tell that based on how many and what sort of extra gaffes come about.

One of the key mistakes was quitting her job in Alaska. It shows her as an opportunistic quitter and I believe many Americans don’t like that kind of attitude on both sides of politics. I think we’ll see that message from her opponents early and often.

Her family may bite her over time. In some ways her large and indeed very real family is an asset to her. It connects her to the many families out there. But in the end it will probably prove more a burden. The thing is women as seen far more as family central and Americans have rather perfectionist views on family. Palin cannot possibly deliver the Brady Bunch.  She has to deal with “porn” Levi who is of course reacting to the excessive exposure caused by Palin’s decision to run in 2008. There’s other possibilities but time will tell.

One other thing Palin at least knows she must do and is working on it. This is reach the moderate and liberal audience. At the moment the only people who hear her message properly are her fanbase. She has to get it further afield to get the numbers she needs. I don’t think she will succeed in this but she may say things very soon which will have the cheering Palin fanbase very uncomfortable.

I also think her heavy bagging of the 2008 election campaign people is rather stupid. Her preferred scapegoat I suppose but very transparent backstabbing and failure to take responsibility, which is not likely to endear her to campaigners or Americans.

The last issue is on the economy.  Americans by now, and I think right into 2012, have their job security and financial wellbeing in mind very much thanks to the collapse which probably sank Palin’s first election chances.  The voters are going to be more interested in economic issues and less on social ones.  Palin is strong on social issues at least from a conservative mindset but has no real economic credentials or vision and will be exposed to a conservative candidate who does.

I expect Palin to go for the 2012 election. Her ego demands it but her abilities aren’t up to the task at hand.  She will fail nomination and that will be that.

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2012, candidate, election, going rogue, Levi Johnston, Sarah Palin, USA