On the 4th of November 2008 Americans will decide if they bother to vote and who they bother to vote for. Out goes Bush, probably into near invisibility, and in comes who? I don’t really follow the US elections all that avidly. Besides it not being in Australia it’s also a very different political system and style to here. However the US president, for good or for ill, has a sizable influence on the world including my little corner of it and blogs I read, especially those of the US military, never stop talking about it.
Originally I was quite convinced Hillary would win both the nomination and the election. I think she would have won if the nomination went her way. But it didn’t. Obama managed to outplay her machine in what I suspect infuriates her no end. Boo hoo. McCain was far more clear cut, winning quite early.
So now we have the democrat Barack Obama versus republican John McCain. From my perspective it’s been a pretty boring and amazingly long campaign. I believe McCain slipped slowly day by day against Obama, mostly on charisma stakes. Not that Obama is all that charismatic but McCain frankly is about as inspirational as a dead cat. Both sides made some gaffes. I thought the nutso hate-filled pastor of Obama (who name is unworthy to repeat) was fairly serious but Obama seems to have suffered little publicly for it. The US flag lapel issue got a little traction but not much, as did McCain’s how many houses gaffe.
But now two big things have happened to spice things up. The first is Palin. Obama picked Joe Biden as running mate to be vice president. Joe seems a perfectly boring safe bet full of experience Obama lacks. Too bad he comes across as a used car salesman. Sarah Palin is different and was an unexpected but clever pick by McCain. She’s quite clearly a genuine redneck and has managed to get the conservatives rallied into action out of the McCain induced torpor.
I don’t personally like Palin, she’s extremely anti-gay for one thing and when I looked at her past all I saw was a fairly clever and ruthless manipulator. However, I do believe Palin has been positive for the republicans, especially in terms in getting the conservatives moving again.
The second big effect is the turfing US economy. Almost everyone knows by now it’s all but flushed itself down the toilet and the US government has floundered around trying to patch it up with a $US700 billion burden on taxpayers. I think this will have a strong and lasting impact on the US election and will be a very difficult hurdle for McCain to leap.
There’s still quite a bit of time left, the bailout and the economy will be important but so will any new surprises. I predict Obama will win the election.
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