It is all sadly predictable. 30,000 US troops will be sent but the military will withdraw in 18 months in July 2011. Yes, before the next election.

So the combined forces, including Australia’s, have just 18 months to turn it around and settle the country into complete stability before heading off. I do not have faith it will be done. Not just because of the huge effort required, but also because now the terrorists know they only have to wait it out 18 months.

Obama disappoints me. He sent all those troops there as General McChrystal requested and for what kind of song and dance? How many of those good men and women will die with no purpose?

George Bush the younger went on and on about US resolve and how they’ll stick it through to the bitter end. Bush was wrong. Bush himself had resolve he stuck it through for what 7 years until he was replaced. And that’s the key. The US, like any democracy, is mutable and what one leader believes is not what another may believe. The US itself does not have resolve. It cannot be relied upon past the next election.

Australia has to re-examine our relationship with the US. Perhaps people who know better than I do will be convinced it can all be done in 18 months. Perhaps the real mission is to provide allied support in the case we’ll need it one day. But does the US have the resolve to help us?

For myself, I don’t see why our serving men and women are there. I see nothing but disgrace in sending the military off to fight hard spending our wealth and getting injured and dying, then to be sent home in 18 months in enforced failure. It would tear my heart if it were me, or my son or daughter. I think the whole lot of our people should come home today.

One of the problems in Afghanistan seems to be supply. Modern armies consume vast amounts of resources and those have to be delivered. In a land with few good access points contractors will resort to bribery to get the goods through. The problem with this is some of that money ends up in enemy hands where each dollar has far more value and impact in the war. In some parts delivery is only feasible by air. So in some ways the military forces are feeding their own resistance.

Another problem is the political system. Kurzai is corrupt and the election is an embarrassment to everyone but he is just a symptom of the wider and deeper corruption in a place where this is the way things are expected to be done.

While we’re on the theme of the ways things are done, I am also less convinced about the idea of not disturbing the opium farming which is a major part of the economy there, for fear of getting farmers to support the terrorists. It may have been better to pay hard cash to farmers to grow the next best crop. The opium trade provides far too much money to the terrorists and probably also provides them with far too many contacts.

It may have also been a good idea to push for changes in the socio-religious system. To put it bluntly to favour moderate forms of Islam to the extreme. Which means pushing for all the changes moderate Islam embraces such as better female access to education and employment and an emphasis on the Islamic discouragement of extreme behaviour. Easier said than done, especially in the rural areas, but it would put enormous pressure on the terrorists who would at last be out of phase with the way things are done in Afghanistan. A good moderate Islam ally which can at least nominally get involved in Afghanistan would possibly be a huge help here.

Another problem is the international coherency and dedication. The NATO entity is not a united one and is pushed and pulled by the various involved powers into poor functionality. Not one nation involved in Afghanistan looks 100% politically dedicated. Not my own. Not even the US. We also need wider regional involvement.

The board game Chess has the situation of win or lose but it also has a draw where neither party wins or loses. I can tell you, without fail, if you play to draw you will lose. I think too many nations are doing that in Afghanistan. The effort of the militaries present is strong but the backup politically is limp.

So I come rather reluctantly to a nasty conclusion. Afghanistan stands on a knife edge and is more likely to fail than succeed if the status quo is maintained. I think very soon it will be clear which way the cards will fall and if it’s ugly we’ll see the bulk of military forces leave. Which is precisely what the enemy is hoping for. Afghanistan needs more than it gets. Does anyone with sufficient power have what it takes? So far the EU, NATO, UN, Obama, China and Kurzai aren’t sources of much hope.

General Stanley McChrystal who runs the US efforts in Afghanistan requested 30 -40K troops and made a case for needing them to win. He made it clear it was lost without them. He might not be getting them. President Obama has procrastinated any real decision on the matter of those troops although it appears he’s about to make that decision.

I hope President Obama, you make a good decision and follow it up with sufficient effort and skill, especially in the diplomatic arena where you have some goodwill.

I’ve refrained from saying too much because at first there was little to say that wasn’t loaded with speculation. I think it’s time to talk about it though. For today, ironically a day we observe to remember the fallen of WW1, is when the memorial service was held for these fallen and their families who suffer the consequences of these murders.

The President was in attendance, which is good, and said something of course but you know words don’t wash out grief, nothing can wash out grief really. One just learns to go on living carrying it along.

A silver lining to this mess is the heroic actions of police officer Kim Munley who took the killer out of action before he did any more. She was also injured.

He isn’t dead apparently, even conscious now. His fate is no doubt tied in courts. Perhaps they will execute him who knows. It hasn’t been done in years but then this kind of event isn’t too common either. I hope they get information out of him but he’s less significant now. What’s important now are the people dealing with the impact and the wider consequences of the massacre.

For one thing, we have to help the grieving and the wounded recover. The Army naturally has to adjust to the loss of good people, including the the disruption from the wounded who are out of action for a while. I’ve every confidence both are well covered already.

One thing that struck me is that Hasan shot so many trained soldiers before being downed. It would appear no-one else had a suitable weapon or opportunity until the female police officer did her deed. It’s not like the Army was that slow, it appears the medical and isolation reaction was quite swift. One wonders if that situation will change. I guess the core issue I see is that soldiers not feeling safe in their own base and among their own people is not tenable. Trust is far too much a key to good military performance that I believe the US Army will take some kind of strong action on security. Even though hopefully one-of, if it were to happen again the reaction would probably be severe.

And there has been reaction anyway. All sorts of reaction. Even the relatively placid Castle has spat a bit of fire and brimstone as the question of blame on Islam is tossed around.

For Hasan, by all appearances, was a Muslim who self radicalised and then did this massacre. I am no cheerleader of Islam. It’s a religion that calls for murder of gays and other innocents in certain situations, a religion with provision for slavery and rape and other actions I do not support whatsoever. It has terrible internal corruption prevention too. I have indeed studied it, even before the 9/11 event.

But then I’m not a friend of many religions in their current state. However, they all have their good points, including Islam, if you care to look. All have their branches and degrees of faith and practices, ie Islam is not as uniform as it appears. In fact it’s much like Christianity that way. Hassan was radical, not mainstream.

The mistake is to make Hasan=Islam and Islam=Hasan. Of the thousands of Muslims in the army only one guy actually did this. Sure Islam may have influenced him but Hasan is a man who is responsible for his own actions. The bulk of serving Muslims are doing so honourably and some have even earned medals for their heroic actions in the service of their country. Hasan did a terrible thing but he was a singular man, anecdotal evidence of Islam by inference only. And anecdotal is the very worst kind of evidence. And we have the counter evidence of the medal holders.

I will not call for harm or restriction to Muslims. I will not push to war against Islam. I would be loathe to give so much power to one man of the name Hasan. Trying to make the conflict a ‘holy’ war is the marketing strategy of of terrorists as it is.

What I do want and probably won’t get is more vigilance from the Islamic community to detect, denounce, prevent and destroy this kind of radicalising activity. Complicity leads to culpability.

There’s been talk about if this is a crime. Well of course it is. Is it something more though? Some say this is treachery. Given the role of Hasan, the state trust vested in him and promises he made, and his probable reasons for taking action. Yes I think it’s treason. Terrorism is more difficult. It probably is. Not in the usual organised (even if just cell-like) sense but a one man terrorising activity of which there have really been quite a few over the years.

There’s been some hoopla doo about the role of psychology and Hasan’s job was as a psychologist and he did indeed work on affected soldiers. I so hope he didn’t do any damage we aren’t aware of.  Some conservatives say he can’t possibly have PTSD he never served on the front lines. It’s not true. PTSD is not just for the military who see the awful reality of conflict. It happens in many other cases. I don’t really hold much water in the psych argument because it’s been put forward too much as an blanket excuse rather than reason with evidence. Even if true it doesn’t necessarily make one a mass murderer. It may be true it played a role but still self responsibility is key.

The other thing people are seeing in the news now are the red flags. The indicators Hasan was a risk. As I’ve argued before red flags are not a sign on the head. We often miss them, which is a good thing if not too many because otherwise it leads to paranoia and overreaction. The cost of ignoring red flags is cases like this where we may miss the boat. Ultimately it’s up to the Army, government and people involved to decide if they ignored a few too many. It can be a hard judgment to make honestly.

Rest in Peace Good Soldiers.